Down, But Not Out: Why Warner Bros. and Digger Still Have a Fighting Chance at the 2027 Oscars Despite a Brutal Opening Weekend
The road to the Academy Awards is rarely a straight line, but few films in recent memory have experienced as jarring a tonal whiplash as WarnerBros.’ climate-change satire, Digger. Directed by five-time Academy Award winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu and headlined by global superstar Tom Cruise, the film arrived with immense pedigree, sky-high expectations, and the heavy machinery of a major studio awards campaign.
However, following a hostile reception from contemporary film critics, Digger stumbled out of the gate with a disastrous openingweekend at the box office. According to the latest expert predictions from Gold Derby, the film’s sudden commercial and critical freefall immediately triggered a shockwave across its Oscar prospects. Major categories like Best Picture, Best Director for Iñárritu, and Best Supporting Actor for John Goodman saw the satirical epic plummet out of the frontrunner tier. Meanwhile, Tom Cruise is left hanging on for dear life in the Best Actor race, fighting to keep his nomination dreams alive.
Yet, as Hollywood history proves time and time again, a toxic critical consensus and a sluggish box office do not automatically spell the death of a movie’s golden statuette aspirations.
Main Facts: The Anatomy of a High-Stakes Flop
To understand the current panic surrounding Digger, one must look at the hard metrics. On Rotten Tomatoes, the film currently sits at a troubling 52% approval rating, while its Metacritic score languishes at a mediocre 46. For a sweeping, expensive social satire meant to dominate the prestige conversation, these numbers are undeniably lethal on paper.
Yet, awards strategists looking at the bigger picture are refusing to throw in the towel. Digger remains a remarkably craft-heavy production. While it may be slipping out of the top tiers for broad categories, it maintains a formidable position in the technical races—most notably in Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Thanks to a striking, transformative physical transformation that turns Tom Cruise into a balding, aging, morally bankrupt oil tycoon, the film remains firmly entrenched in the Top 3 for hair and makeup consideration.
Furthermore, Iñárritu possesses an almost bulletproof historical armor at the Academy. Every single one of his previous seven feature films has managed to secure at least one Oscar nomination—even his divisive, widely panned 2022 streaming feature Bardo, which still managed to capture a Best Cinematography nod. Over his career, Iñárritu has directed 10 different actors to Academy Award nominations, with Leonardo DiCaprio taking home the gold for The Revenant. If the Academy decides to look past the contemporary discourse, Cruise could become the filmmaker’s eleventh acting nominee.
Chronology: From the Red Carpet to the Box Office Freefall
The trajectory of Digger from a buzzy fall festival player to an embattled contender can be traced across a brutal few weeks:
September 22, 2026: Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Tom Cruise walk the red carpet together at the world premiere and Royal Film Performance of Digger in London, England. Spirits are high, and Warner Bros. positions the movie as a major holiday and awards-season heavyweight.
Early October 2026: Embargoes lift, and the critical reception rolls in. Reviewers take aim at the film’s heavy-handed tone and satirical execution, dragging the Rotten Tomatoes score down to a dismal 52% and Metacritic to 46.
Mid-October 2026:Digger opens theatrically to a disastrous weekend box office. Ticket sales crater, triggering immediate panic among studio executives and causing Gold Derby’s expert odds to drastically downgrade the film’s Oscar chances across major categories.
Late October 2026: A wave of high-profile industry heavyweights rallies around Iñárritu, pushing back against the negative critical piling-on via social media and trade statements.
January 21, 2027: The official nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are scheduled to be announced, revealing whether the Academy chose to punish Digger for its poor reviews or reward its bold, ambitious swings.
Supporting Data: The History of Defying Rotten Tomatoes
While modern internet culture treats Rotten Tomatoes scores as immutable law, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has a long, documented history of rewarding polarizing films that critics initially despised or dismissed. Digger is far from the first high-profile contender to overcome a poor critical reception on its way to major Oscar glory.
Consider the following Best Picture nominees since 2000 that secured sub-70% scores on Rotten Tomatoes yet still managed to capture the attention of Academy voters:
Year
Film
RT Score
Oscar History
2000
Chocolat
63%
5 nominations; 0 wins
2006
Babel
68%
7 nominations; 1 win (Best Original Score)
2008
The Reader
63%
5 nominations; 1 win (Best Actress – Kate Winslet)
5 nominations; 4 wins (Best Actor – Rami Malek, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
2018
Vice
64%
8 nominations; 1 win (Best Makeup & Hairstyling)
2019
Joker
68%
11 nominations; 2 wins (Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix, Best Original Score)
2021
Don’t Look Up
56%
4 nominations; 0 wins
Looking at Warner Bros.’ own catalog, precedent exists for severe critical backlash failing to deter voters. In 2011, the studio released the post-9/11 drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. It fared even worse than Digger, pulling in a dismal 45% on Rotten Tomatoes. Yet, the emotional drama persevered, earning two major Oscar nominations (Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor for Max von Sydow) alongside four Critics Choice bids, culminating in young star Thomas Horn winning Best Young Performer.
More recently, Netflix’s Don’t Look Up (2021)—which shares Digger’s satirical, anxious focus on the climate change crisis—managed only a 56% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That didn’t stop the Adam McKay film from steamrolling into the awards race with four Oscar nominations (Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and Best Score), four Golden Globe bids, and six Critics Choice nods.
Perhaps the most glaring example of critical disdain colliding with massive awards success is 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody. While the Queen biopic drove cinephiles wild with frustration and settled at a modest 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, it went on to capture five Academy Award nominations and win four of them, including Best Actor for Rami Malek. Malek swept the industry, taking home hardware at the SAG Awards, BAFTA Awards, and Golden Globes.
Official Responses: Hollywood Rallies Behind Iñárritu
In the wake of Digger’s box office disappointment and critical roasting, an unusual thing happened: a coalition of Hollywood’s most elite filmmakers and actors publicly circled the wagons to defend Iñárritu. Rather than letting the director twist in the wind, his Oscar-winning peers stepped forward to remind the industry that taking massive creative risks should be celebrated, not punished.
Academy Award-winning director Alfonso Cuarón took to social media to post a series of historically scathing initial reviews given to undisputed cinematic masterpieces upon their original releases—including 2001: A Space Odyssey, Blade Runner, and The Shining—to contextualize the fleeting nature of contemporary critical outrage.
Meanwhile, fellow visionary Guillermo del Toro delivered a characteristic rallying cry:
"Love the arts; f–k the charts."
Acclaimed actress Anne Hathaway lent her voice to the discourse, simply stating, "I loved this brilliant movie," while Hollywood legend Jane Fonda delivered a direct message to the embattled director:
"Keep being brave."
Implications: Will Hollywood Reward Bold Ambition or Play It Safe?
The ultimate question facing Digger is whether the Academy will follow the lead of Iñárritu’s vocal defenders or fold to the prevailing internet consensus.
Awards season is as much about momentum and narrative as it is about artistic merit. When a high-profile movie suffers a simultaneous critical and commercial collapse, it creates an uphill battle for guild voters who may be hesitant to throw their weight behind a perceived loser. However, Hollywood’s creative branch often holds a deep respect for ambitious swing-for-the-fences filmmaking, especially when spearheaded by an auteur of Iñárritu’s stature and a megastar like Tom Cruise willing to subvert his untouchable screen persona.
As the industry pivots away from the initial box-office postmortems and toward official voting windows, the campaign strategists at Warner Bros. are working tirelessly to refocus attention away from opening weekend ticket sales and onto the film’s formidable craftsmanship.
The official nominations for the 99th Academy Awards will be announced on January 21, 2027. Until then, Digger remains a fascinating case study in the volatile intersection of art, commerce, and awards politics—proving that in Hollywood, a movie is never truly out of the race until the envelopes are finally opened.
